April 2009 Hiring Forecast Plunges to 4 Year Low
03. Apr, 2009 
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Compensation packages are shrinking and competition for open jobs is fierce
April will continue a bleak employment outlook for job seekers as employment expectations continue to sink in the manufacturing and service sectors, according to the Society for Human Resource Management’s (SHRM) LINE(R) Employment Report.
In the biggest decline of the survey’s four year history, the LINE, or Leading Indicators of National Employment(R), Report forecasts for April a 53.5 point drop in manufacturing sector hiring and a 40.7 point decline in service sector hiring compared to this time last year.
A total of 73% of respondents see bigger trouble ahead for the U.S. job market: 54% are somewhat pessimistic about job growth in the United States in the first quarter of 2009 and anticipate job losses, and another 19% are very pessimistic and anticipate job cuts during the quarter.
“The recession continues to impact the job market, as seen in this month’s LINE Report, where April has traditionally been a strong month for manufacturing job growth,” said Jennifer Schramm, manager of workplace trends and forecasting at SHRM. “In April 2007, more than 60 percent of companies added to their payrolls. That number has dwindled to 16.7 percent in just two years and 31.2 of organizations report they are now decreasing their payrolls.”
Given April’s hiring expectations, HR professionals and recruiters in both sectors noted little difficulty in finding qualified applicants. For the first time in four years, LINE recorded single-digit response levels — 2.7 percent in the manufacturing sector and 1.7 percent in the service sector — for those HR professionals reporting increased difficulty with recruiting in March with many more reporting decreased recruiting difficulty (24.0 and 25.4 percent respectively).
“The low response totals can likely be attributed to two factors: fewer HR professionals are recruiting right now, and, with an increased number of people looking for work, those employers who are hiring can afford to be selective and are having few issues with finding top-level talent,” said Schramm.
The current recession is proving that no jobs are immune from elimination, as reinforced by the SHRM LMO survey results. Of the companies that will cut positions in the fi rst quarter of 2009, 56% of HR respondents said managers and professionals would be among the jobs eliminated. Another 43% said the layoffs would include hourly service workers, and 12% percent planned to cut senior executives as part of their layoffs.
However, not everyone surveyed is planning to eliminate jobs, and some are pursuing payroll expansions in early 2009. Of the 23% of respondents who will conduct hiring in the fi rst quarter of 2009, large employers planned to add an average of 56.2 employees to their payrolls. Medium-sized companies, or those with payrolls between 100 and 499 employees, planned to add an average of 17.8 workers. Small employers, or those with fewer than 100 workers, planned to hire an average of 4.2 employees.
The findings are detailed in the April 2009 LINE Employment Report, a set of labor market indicators that forecast changes to four national employment measures: job expectations, job vacancies, new-hire compensation and recruitment difficulty.
April 2009 LINE Employment Report – Free Legal Forms
LINE is based on a monthly survey of human resource professionals at more than 500 manufacturing and 500 private service-sector companies. Together, these two sectors comprise more than 90 percent of America’s private sector employment.
The manufacturing sector:
The LINE index of manufacturing employment expectations for April 2009 dropped 53.5 points compared with one year ago. Almost twice as many human resource managers will be cutting payrolls (31.2 percent) as will be hiring (16.7 percent). Signs of the current recession continue by comparing this month’s employment expectations to those in April 2008, where 51.5 percent of HR managers were hiring and 12.5 percent were decreasing payrolls.
March 2009 payroll vacancies, tracking exempt (salaried) and nonexempt (hourly) workers fell. HR managers report a 19.7 point drop in nonexempt job vacancies and a 24.0 point plummet in exempt job vacancies.
For the first time in four years, the net total for new-hire compensation ventured into negative territory. More HR managers said they were decreasing new-hire compensation (2.6 percent) than were increasing (1.3 percent). This is the lowest March response total in the report’s history.
The service sector:
The LINE index of service sector employment expectations fell 40.7 points. Although February and March showed some promise in hiring, in April, service sector hiring regressed with 21.7 percent adding to payrolls, 27.2 percent conducting layoffs.
HR professionals report an 11.3 point drop for exempt job vacancies and a 7.4 point drop in nonexempt hiring vacancies.
Only 1.2 percent of businesses will increase new hire compensation, while 3.4 percent will decrease compensation in March 2009, another four year low.
About LINE
The SHRM LINE Report is released at 9 a.m. Eastern time on the third Friday following the conclusion of the week containing the 12th of the month. The SHRM employment expectations index describes the same time period referenced approximately one month later in the Employment Situation Report issued by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
About the Society for Human Resource Management
The Society for Human Resource Management (SHRM) is the world’s largest association devoted to human resource management. Representing more than 250,000 members in over 140 countries, the Society serves the needs of HR professionals and advances the interests of the HR profession. Founded in 1948, SHRM has more than 575 affiliated chapters within the United States and subsidiary offices in China and India. Visit SHRM Online at www.shrm.org.
Source: Society for Human Resource Management
It is really sad that people are losing their jobs and the present state of the economy is not helping matters. Many more will lose their jobs in the next few months and the findings reflect the mood and the sentiments of the common man. Let’s hope that things turn for the better and we see an upturn soon.
It is going to get worse, almost daily I hear of more layoffs and plant closings. Seems to be more going on than just an a recession.
Still, it looks like we hit the bottom.
Oh, it’s good to know that something is going above the water and some companies continue to ask for employees. In this time of recession and frustration we must be confident in the future, since it is the only way.
Excellent article, gives us a real global perspective in this time of uncertainity.
This article blog is right on. Times are definitely tough right now for everyone, but we just have to survive as best we can until the storm is over. We will all get through this and be better because of it.
Excellent article to illustrate perspective.
Hopefully, things will change soon and this trend will start to reverse. This article is helpful to know what direction jobs are headed at this time. Perhaps at home workers might make it big soon, as they cost less to maintain than on-site people. Well, thanks for the information!
I’m shocking surprised by this. Hope we’ll be out of this situation soon.
Though this is sad and depressing, I feel we’ll have to accept it. The recession has got us all and hope is our only hope. Hope our hopes will be fulfilled, sooner than later.
BTW, the post was excellent as usual. Keep it up.
73% responded that they still see more trouble ahead? That doesn’t sound good at all.
Does this mean we haven’t seen the low point? I would hope the Government’s actions would somehow stimulate some kind of activity in the job market, but that doesn’t seem to be the case.
The immediate forecast for employment looks bleak, but the job forecast definitely looks brighter for later this year. Information technology and the medical fields seem to be the best areas to look right now.
The situations are really getting worse and there are few chances that they will get better soon. Personally, I don’t feel that there will be any improvements in the reports in the near future. This is a tough time and we need to get tougher to survive. Only humanity can help us there. Great post. For many, it’ll prove to be an eye-opener.
Thanks for this thoroughly informative post. I was unaware of most of the stats given here. I can only pray that the opportunities will rise and things will get better. This reality really bites. However, it was great to get to know about it. The strategically placed graphs and details only add to the effectiveness of this article and makes it more interesting to read and easily understandable. Really mind-blowing article.
Very informative article….not what I wanted to hear, but it’s good to know. Things have to get better before they get worse, I suppose. Just have to keep positive and do the best we can!
Economic movement is like waves, sometimes it goes up and sometimes it goes down.
We can only hope that it will get better soon!
Like many, I can attest to the tough job market. Our company has frozen nearly all hiring, laid off some people, and cut hours or forced people to take mandatory unpaid time off. Based on internal news announcements and feedback from our clients, the outlook is grim for the next year or two. I’ll be happy to keep my job!
Even though the outlook appears bad, I think that being aware of our gifts and goals and having a positive attitude will help us to get through. We need to learn to rely on our talents and abilities.
Wow, that didn’t really make me feel any better…
No wonder personal development is booming right now. People are trying to get out of this mindset that everything is falling apart. Which it is. I personally think people should try to find ways to do a small business for themselves that doesn’t require a lot of money to start up. Also there are jobs out there, it just might not be different terms than what your used to.
Obviously job growth is going to be weak at best for some
time to come. This article’s insight leads me to the conclusion
that job losses are finally leveling off. That’s hopeful news.
However, it is far easier to destroy jobs than create them.
Regrowth will take patience and much trial and error.